It's a question of numbers. It's the
classic salt tank problem from Differential Equations I (which, as a Calc I flunk out, Hubbard never took
):
Q(t) is the amount of salt in the tank
Rate of
change of
Q(t) | = | Rate at
which Q(t)
enters the
tank |
| Rate at
which Q(t)
exits the
tank |
where,
Rate of change of Q(t) =
|
Rate at which Q(t) enters the tank = (flow rate of liquid entering) x
(concentration of substance in liquid entering) |
Rate at which Q(t) exits the tank = (flow rate of liquid exiting) x
(concentration of substance in liquid exiting) |
Except our equation is a little more complicated. Usually the graphic in the DE textbook shows one spigot at the top pouring in and one at the bottom emptying out.
Now, the WUS, EUS and SA stats just released give us some idea of the entry rate. We have a little bit of a clue as to the exit rate as well, based on ESMB stats, personal interactions, and especially the known number of OTVIIs and OTVIIIs active.
It's obvious that the exit rate is greater than the entry rate. We're trying to solve for when Q(t) = 0 (or 1, only Davy left
, assuming the cult kicks the bucket before he does).
But it's a little more complicated than that. It's as if the flow coming out of the exit spigot presses a lever that reduces the flow of the entry spigot, because every Ex who comes out poisons the well of potential recruits to a greater or lesser degree, but poison it they do.
Now the equation as outlined above is a student exercise even as a salt tank problem, because it assumes a constant flow rate, and the exit rate is also a function of how much solution there is in the tank - the more solution, the greater the flow, because the water pressure is pushing on the exit spigot. This, too has an analogy with he Co$ - at high numbers of Scilons, there is a good mix of true believers, sort-of-believers, and heretics. The latter two fuel the high exit rates we've seen in the past few decades. But as Q(t) decreases, the rate of exit decreases because the only people left are the true believers who need not just one, but a series of catastrophic events in order to leave, or perhaps, if we strain the analogy a bit, they are the salt that's precipitated out of the solution and now coats the inner surface oft he tank, never to be dislodged at all. Even if they all are capable of leaving, in the real world the last few gallons of brine trickle out of the tank very slowly, since there is nothing pushing them out, and likewise, once the cult drops to a certain level, it will live on, zombie-like, slowly, slowly hemorrhaging members, but still "alive" in a technical sense.
That last observation begs the question: what, exactly, do we mean by "dead"? Is it really Q(t) = 0 or 1? Or is in Q(t) < 1000 or some arbitrary number that indicates the cult has now joined the living dead and is shambling off to the grave ever so slowly?
I don't know the answer, but the numbers tell me that the entry rate of new Steven Mangos is far less than the exit rate of long-standing members in the US. But what about Russia? Poland? Haiti?
The cult may have some life left in it after all. But it might be the life of the last few drops that dribble into your pants, no matter how you shake and dance.