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Scientology's End - less wishful thinking please

TG1

Angelic Poster
Veda,

As I know you know, the value of an organization depends on its:

Book value - total value of the company's assets that shareholders would theoretically receive if a company were liquidated

vs.

Market value - what the organization would sell for on the open market

In addition to cash in hand, debts, accounts receivable, etc., there are also things like good will, intellectual property, value of the brand, etc., that add to or detract from the brand.

Ahem.

I've read old-timers say (but don't know this myself) that the unpaid US taxes levied against the CoS prior to the big IRS settlement put the CoS's book value far in the red. In other words, the church then owed more in taxes than all its sellable assets.

If the rumors about the SO reserves, funded by IAS donations, are true, that's somewhere between $1 and $2 billion. If not, it's less than that.

Add to that the CoS's owned real estate. If that were all sold on the open market right now (regardless of how much the CoS and parishioners actually paid for it, which was too much) that might be worth between $500K and $1 billion. Big range, but that's the best I can do.

Subtract from that the value on CoS's books of tech services paid for but not delivered yet. I've heard this deficit is considerable. Purely arm-waving, I'd guess it's around $250 million.

I doubt there are any outstanding debts to speak of. Certainly there are no employment contracts to pay off. Some legal fees, some architectural / planning fees perhaps. Maybe $50 million max?

Based on the above armwaves, that makes CoS worth today between (rounded off) somewhere between $1.2 and $2.7 billion.

Again, am only arm-waving.

TG1
 

Queenmab321

Patron Meritorious
Hoping Scientology might evolve into something less harmful as time goes on is wishful thinking.

Scientology has been evolving into something more and more harmful for the past 60 years.

It is incapable of being anything but an evil lie, a damaging scam. The only one to benefit is the [strike]man[/strike] dwarf at the top.

From what I've read Scientology has always been pretty hideous. This being said, Hubbard clearly managed to produce a set of dogma that many people find beneficial and meaningful. I suppose I would make a distinction between this core set of beliefs and the essentially fascist organization that surrounds it. It's hard to anticipate what this organization might do in the face of genuine extinction, but it seems more likely that it would adapt (with or without DM) in order to survive, rather than simply disappear. But even if the organization were to collapse, it's probable the core that attracted people in the first place would continue to do so. After all, people appear willing to believe almost anything, no matter how fabulous or nonsensical, as long as it provides them with certainty, identity and purpose.
It's a fundamentalist sect and, therefore, resistant to reform, but a passing glance at the history of other movements shows, I think, a surprising capacity for adaptation.
 
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Enthetan

Master of Disaster
...
Explanation: It has been estimated that only 1-2% of the people who get in Scientology stay in and the other 98% abandon and reject it. Of those 98/100 who blow, many will inevitably spread "entheta" about Hubbard's bridge to total freedom to their immediate circle of family, friends and co-workers. Let's be very conservative and assume that only 20% of those who leave spread the word that it doesn't work or worse. And let's further assume that they restrict their "suppressive black PR" to only two (2) people the rest of their lives. LOL.

Let's do the math. Therefore, for each person who becomes a true-believing Scientologist, there are 19 out there dead agenting Scientology and 38 others who have been driven PTS by their natter and don't like Hubbard's cult.

At this point, any new Scn who announces on Facebook that he's starting a course at the org, will likely have at least one Facebook friend who will give him LOTS of data about it.
 

Enthetan

Master of Disaster
:hysterical:

What caliber did you find blew the most BPC?

Now I am starting to guess the make/model of your gun. Hmmmmm......You don't seem like a Glock kinda guy. And I don't see you as a 1911 model 45 caliber dude either. Damn, this is not going to be easy. Okay, I'll take a wild guess. Probably 9mm, maybe Beretta or Sig?

Oh no, wait, now I am thinking revolver (38).

My OT powers are not working right now. Let me go do some O/Ws and I'll come back later and try again. :giggle:

Why do you assume he only has one?

I recall the last time he got around to cleaning out his gun closet...

guns2.jpg
 

Enthetan

Master of Disaster
Really, mobsters are much nicer.

IRL, I've known "made" guys & been near the midget. The mobsers are a whole lot better human beings. Really.

Real tough guys are very polite and considerate.

They have to be. They hang out with armed people who are just as tough.
 

Enthetan

Master of Disaster
It's a question of numbers. It's the classic salt tank problem from Differential Equations I (which, as a Calc I flunk out, Hubbard never took :hysterical:):



Except our equation is a little more complicated. Usually the graphic in the DE textbook shows one spigot at the top pouring in and one at the bottom emptying out.

Now, the WUS, EUS and SA stats just released give us some idea of the entry rate. We have a little bit of a clue as to the exit rate as well, based on ESMB stats, personal interactions, and especially the known number of OTVIIs and OTVIIIs active.

It's obvious that the exit rate is greater than the entry rate. We're trying to solve for when Q(t) = 0 (or 1, only Davy left :yes:, assuming the cult kicks the bucket before he does).

But it's a little more complicated than that. It's as if the flow coming out of the exit spigot presses a lever that reduces the flow of the entry spigot, because every Ex who comes out poisons the well of potential recruits to a greater or lesser degree, but poison it they do.

Now the equation as outlined above is a student exercise even as a salt tank problem, because it assumes a constant flow rate, and the exit rate is also a function of how much solution there is in the tank - the more solution, the greater the flow, because the water pressure is pushing on the exit spigot. This, too has an analogy with he Co$ - at high numbers of Scilons, there is a good mix of true believers, sort-of-believers, and heretics. The latter two fuel the high exit rates we've seen in the past few decades. But as Q(t) decreases, the rate of exit decreases because the only people left are the true believers who need not just one, but a series of catastrophic events in order to leave, or perhaps, if we strain the analogy a bit, they are the salt that's precipitated out of the solution and now coats the inner surface oft he tank, never to be dislodged at all. Even if they all are capable of leaving, in the real world the last few gallons of brine trickle out of the tank very slowly, since there is nothing pushing them out, and likewise, once the cult drops to a certain level, it will live on, zombie-like, slowly, slowly hemorrhaging members, but still "alive" in a technical sense.

That last observation begs the question: what, exactly, do we mean by "dead"? Is it really Q(t) = 0 or 1? Or is in Q(t) < 1000 or some arbitrary number that indicates the cult has now joined the living dead and is shambling off to the grave ever so slowly?

I don't know the answer, but the numbers tell me that the entry rate of new Steven Mangos is far less than the exit rate of long-standing members in the US. But what about Russia? Poland? Haiti?

The cult may have some life left in it after all. But it might be the life of the last few drops that dribble into your pants, no matter how you shake and dance.

Even when the official organization is defunct, there will still be people who will putter with the tech. The Independent field will keep going for a while. Perhaps somebody will even collate what works as far as improving people's happiness, and things will resurge for a while.

The tipping point, though, will be when cash flow is no longer sufficient to pay for the army of lawyers and PIs that DM uses to keep a lid on things.
 

Cat's Squirrel

Gold Meritorious Patron
Even when the official organization is defunct, there will still be people who will putter with the tech. The Independent field will keep going for a while. Perhaps somebody will even collate what works as far as improving people's happiness, and things will resurge for a while.

The tipping point, though, will be when cash flow is no longer sufficient to pay for the army of lawyers and PIs that DM uses to keep a lid on things.

Good point. If they ever lost their tax exempt status, that would be another one.
 

kate8024

-deleted-
My predictions for the CofS are somewhat less dramatic. I predict that over the course of, say, 30 years the Church of Scientology will slowly change the really bad stuff like RPF due to lawsuits but will more or sell stay about the same size membership wise. I predict that most of the Ideal Orgs will close and small Missions will pop up to replace them. Other than that I pretty much predict stagnation.
 
My predictions for the CofS are somewhat less dramatic. I predict that over the course of, say, 30 years the Church of Scientology will slowly change the really bad stuff like RPF due to lawsuits but will more or sell stay about the same size membership wise. I predict that most of the Ideal Orgs will close and small Missions will pop up to replace them. Other than that I pretty much predict stagnation.

i hesitate to make any predictions but i hope the fuck some people somewhere do something centered on auditing and training. i beginning to suspect that will never be CoS
 

SpecialFrog

Silver Meritorious Patron
Even when the official organization is defunct, there will still be people who will putter with the tech. The Independent field will keep going for a while. Perhaps somebody will even collate what works as far as improving people's happiness, and things will resurge for a while.

The CoS Exist Survey suggests that the Independent field isn't really viable either. A decent number of people continue some involvement with the tech after leaving the CoS but this plummets rapidly and very few are still involved five years after leaving.

17-7bc6df51d6.jpg


And of course their recruiting pool is essentially the group of people leaving the CoS as they have almost no outreach to raw public, so as CoS shrinks further their recruiting pool shrinks as well.
 

Veda

Sponsor
Veda,

As I know you know, the value of an organization depends on its:

Book value - total value of the company's assets that shareholders would theoretically receive if a company were liquidated

vs.

Market value - what the organization would sell for on the open market

In addition to cash in hand, debts, accounts receivable, etc., there are also things like good will, intellectual property, value of the brand, etc., that add to or detract from the brand.

Ahem.

I've read old-timers say (but don't know this myself) that the unpaid US taxes levied against the CoS prior to the big IRS settlement put the CoS's book value far in the red. In other words, the church then owed more in taxes than all its sellable assets.

If the rumors about the SO reserves, funded by IAS donations, are true, that's somewhere between $1 and $2 billion. If not, it's less than that.

Add to that the CoS's owned real estate. If that were all sold on the open market right now (regardless of how much the CoS and parishioners actually paid for it, which was too much) that might be worth between $500K and $1 billion. Big range, but that's the best I can do.

Subtract from that the value on CoS's books of tech services paid for but not delivered yet. I've heard this deficit is considerable. Purely arm-waving, I'd guess it's around $250 million.

I doubt there are any outstanding debts to speak of. Certainly there are no employment contracts to pay off. Some legal fees, some architectural / planning fees perhaps. Maybe $50 million max?

Based on the above armwaves, that makes CoS worth today between (rounded off) somewhere between $1.2 and $2.7 billion.

Again, am only arm-waving.

TG1

So its worth is between 1.2 and 2.7 billion, although I have heard estimates as high a six billion. From the 1960s, with the Sea Org, with Xenu, with the RPF, with federal imprisonment of Hubbard's wife, to the bizarre 1986 'Death Event', to the "erasing" of Pat Broeker, to the surprise (for Miscavige in in the late 1980s) that there are no more upper OT levels, to the 1993 IRS agreement (a major turning point), and on and on, Scientology has increased significantly its worth over the decades.

It doesn't seem likely that it will disappear any time in the foreseeable future.

And it really has no need to reform. Why should it? It has a core membership, "religious" protection, its billion+ dollars, and the possibility that Miscavige - whose hands have been blooded to too great an extent - may be replaced by a charming, smart manipulator, who will assemble a tech team, and give Scientologists the new upper OT levels they so desire.

It's not over yet.
 

Auditor's Toad

Clear as Mud
Real tough guys are very polite and considerate.

They have to be. They hang out with armed people who are just as tough.

That was my experience. There existence depended on being "tough" and while they are polite they have a couple of goombas over in the corner just waiting for the word to "take care of" somebody.

My friend had "juice" in Vegas. Maybe one day I tell about the "favor" he did to get front row FREE tickets to a sold out show - and the major houshold name headliner singer came out and introduced the couple who had complained to their "uncle" they couldn't get tickets to the show.
 

Anonycat

Crusader
So its worth is between 1.2 and 2.7 billion, although I have heard estimates as high a six billion. From the 1960s, with the Sea Org, with Xenu, with the RPF, with federal imprisonment of Hubbard's wife, to the bizarre 1986 'Death Event', to the "erasing" of Pat Broeker, to the surprise (for Miscavige in in the late 1980s) that there are no more upper OT levels, to the 1993 IRS agreement (a major turning point), and on and on, Scientology has increased significantly its worth over the decades.

It doesn't seem likely that it will disappear any time in the foreseeable future.

And it really has no need to reform. Why should it? It has a core membership, "religious" protection, its billion+ dollars, and the possibility that Miscavige - whose hands have been blooded to too great an extent - may be replaced by a charming, smart manipulator, who will assemble a tech team, and give Scientologists the new upper OT levels they so desire.

It's not over yet.

You have to admit though, over the past 6 years, it has taken a substantial beating, and if steam picks up, it really can't hold out. It can have a billion dollars, but it requires people to exist. My guess is their are now under 10,000 slaves.
 

Veda

Sponsor
You have to admit though, over the past 6 years, it has taken a substantial beating, and if steam picks up, it really can't hold out. It can have a billion dollars, but it requires people to exist. My guess is their are now under 10,000 slaves.

I've heard this sort of thing for thirty+ years. Before the internet, there were plenty of critical books (from the early 1970s). New people, many of whom had read one or more of them, joined anyway.

New people, believe it or not, are still coming in.

Watch out for Miscavige being replaced. Perhaps a bungler will replace him; perhaps a slick charming manipulator.

Wait and see.

In the meantime, the internet and making information and communication freely available will protect many.
 

Sindy

Crusader
If we had the exciting privilege of watching Scientology collapse in sped-up time-lapsed film over the years, the implosion would be impressive and pronounced.

We're in the throes of it. It's happening NOW. What do they really have left? Really.

Allowing for the higher, 40,000 member figure, that's .0000056% of the population. That's pretty insignificant. That's the population of Quincy, IL, one little teeny, weeny town of many in just the one state of IL.

So this dinky population of people who won't read or watch anything they're not supposed to, are indoctrinated, hypnotized and effectively nuts, mostly have all their credit cards maxed and their finances in shambles. They're amped up on some artificial, group-reinforced, long-running manic episode that demands "success", "expansion", "growth", "winning". This they have to fake because those attributes are not real in this environment. Those are not the characteristics of the lives they lead so they have to make affirmations to each other at events and on Facebook while deep down somewhere they sense they are living very inauthentic lives that have gone seriously awry.

Most are trapped playing the Ideal Org game. Where once there was a purpose there is now only empty robotic activity towards an obligation and a goal they know they will never reach when they secretly allow themselves to "do the math" in their own time away from all the group agreement.

Many of these buildings are in serious trouble. There are pending lawsuits with city officials having their patience tested over and over and over. This cannot go on forever and it won't. The reckoning is edging closer daily on this one.

Miscavige, having created a fantasy world for so long, will play that out to the very end. He appears sick, frail, worried. Though he looks like your average guy, he's really a terrified wreck of a being who sees enemies and weird environments all around him. He is insane.

Miscavige has no more cards to play. He's blown his wad. It's taken its toll on him too. After all these amazing global projects he's been working on for all these years, he was sure everyone would see him as the smartest guy alive -- the savior, the one. Instead he is reviled and has to pretend that doesn't bother him while it eats at him as a seething vindictive mass of hate.

The jig is up. Though they rake in lots of dough, the enterprise is top heavy and cannot sustain itself. Miscavige will pretend he has enough money until he can't even pay a parking ticket. He knows no other way to act.

Right now, in this snapshot of time, we are seeing the last of the semblance of order and pretty trimmings. Over the next year to two years, I predict the whole thing comes unglued to the point where even the members cannot pretend anymore. Miscavige is up against a wall. He thought his heavy hitters would support him and instead they left and started exposing him from the insane criminal that he is.

I think that we have also seen that once the spell is broken, it may linger for a few years for some but eventually it wears off for most. I really don't see a big reorganization after the bloom is off the rose.

If the "stats' over the last many years are to hold up (and there are no reasons to believe they will do otherwise), the thing will break up into something that no longer functions as a whole and it will be a crisis situation for them. I believe, in that crisis (because of the current world environment and collapse of so many systems), they will try desperately to hold onto the facade but they will fail.

If I am wrong, I will eat serious crow shit, but I predict they are essentially done in 2 years or less.
 
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Sindy

Crusader
So its worth is between 1.2 and 2.7 billion, although I have heard estimates as high a six billion. From the 1960s, with the Sea Org, with Xenu, with the RPF, with federal imprisonment of Hubbard's wife, to the bizarre 1986 'Death Event', to the "erasing" of Pat Broeker, to the surprise (for Miscavige in in the late 1980s) that there are no more upper OT levels, to the 1993 IRS agreement (a major turning point), and on and on, Scientology has increased significantly its worth over the decades.

It doesn't seem likely that it will disappear any time in the foreseeable future.

And it really has no need to reform. Why should it? It has a core membership, "religious" protection, its billion+ dollars, and the possibility that Miscavige - whose hands have been blooded to too great an extent - may be replaced by a charming, smart manipulator, who will assemble a tech team, and give Scientologists the new upper OT levels they so desire.

It's not over yet.

This is definitely the safer bet, I admit. I don't think so but I am very willing to be wrong. I, of course have no proof, but I also believe their holdings are substantially less than these numbers that get thrown around.

Also, we can look at Steven Mango and say, "My god, they are still able to get people in and get them THAT under control. Amazing!" but they used to be able to keep a person like Steven for 25-30 plus years. They were able to keep him for 5. That's a big reduction. Their return on investment is upside down.

Btw, hello. :)
 

Gib

Crusader
If we had the exciting privilege of watching Scientology collapse in sped-up time-lapsed film over the years, the implosion would be impressive and pronounced.

We're in the throes of it. It's happening NOW. What do they really have left? Really.

Allowing for the higher, 40,000 member figure, that's .0000056% of the population. That's pretty insignificant. That's the population of Quincy, IL, one little teeny, weeny town of many in just the one state of IL.

So this dinky population of people who won't read or watch anything they're not supposed to, are indoctrinated, hypnotized and effectively nuts, mostly have all their credit cards maxed and their finances in shambles. They're amped up on some artificial, group-reinforced, long-running manic episode that demands "success", "expansion", "growth", "winning". This they have to fake because those attributes are not real in this environment. Those are not the characteristics of the lives they lead so they have to make affirmations to each other at events and on Facebook while deep down somewhere they sense they are living very inauthentic lives that have gone seriously awry.

Most are trapped playing the Ideal Org game. Where once there was a purpose there is now only empty robotic activity towards an obligation and a goal they know they will never reach when they secretly allow themselves to "do the math" in their own time away from all the group agreement.

Many of these buildings are in serious trouble. There are pending lawsuits with city officials having their patience tested over and over and over. This cannot go on forever and it won't. The reckoning is edging closer daily on this one.

Miscavige, having created a fantasy world for so long, will play that out to the very end. He appears sick, frail, worried. Though he looks like your average guy, he's really a terrified wreck of a being who sees enemies and weird environments all around him. He is insane.

Miscavige has no more cards to play. He's blown his wad. It's taken its toll on him too. After all these amazing global projects he's been working on for ll these years, he was sure everyone would see him as the smartest guy alive -- the savior, the one. Instead he is reviled and has to pretend that doesn't bother him while it eats at him as a seething vindictive mass of hate.

The jig is up. Though they rake in lots of dough, the enterprise is top heavy and cannot sustain itself. Miscavige will pretend he has enough money until he can't even pay a parking ticket. He knows no other way to act.

Right now, in this snapshot of time, we are seeing the last of the semblance of order and pretty trimmings. Over the next year to two years, I predict the whole thing comes unglued to the point where even the members cannot pretend anymore. Miscavige is up against a wall. He thought his heavy hitters would support him and instead they left and started exposing him from the insane criminal that he is.

I think that we have also seen that once the spell is broken, it may linger for a few years for some but eventually it wears off for most. I really don't see a big reorganization after the bloom is off the rose.

If the "stats' over the last many years are to hold up (and there are no reasons to believe they will do otherwise), the thing will break up into something that no longer functions as a whole and it will be a crisis situation for them. I believe, in that crisis (because of the current world environment and collapse of so many systems), they will try desperately to hold onto the facade but they will fail.

If I am wrong, I will eat serious crow shit, but I predict they are essentially done in 2 years or less.


:thumbsup:

The only thing you can be upbraided for is no results. There are no "clears" or "ot's" as is depicted in Martys recent blog,

22 lawyers to defend DM vs a few lawyers to defend Monique.

where are the "clears" and "ot's" to make this go away. :roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao:

only a bunch of high paid lawyers can make it go away. :hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical:
 
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