ESMB has entered archive mode. All posts and threads that were available to the general public are still readable. The board is still searchable. 

Thank you all for your participation and readership over the last 12 years.

If you want to join in the conversation, please join the new ESMB Redux at www.exscn2.net.



Scientology's End - less wishful thinking please

Discussion in 'General Scientology Discussion' started by FascinatedNeverIn, Jan 28, 2014.

View Users: View Users
  1. TG1

    TG1 Angelic Poster

    Veda,

    As I know you know, the value of an organization depends on its:

    Book value - total value of the company's assets that shareholders would theoretically receive if a company were liquidated

    vs.

    Market value - what the organization would sell for on the open market

    In addition to cash in hand, debts, accounts receivable, etc., there are also things like good will, intellectual property, value of the brand, etc., that add to or detract from the brand.

    Ahem.

    I've read old-timers say (but don't know this myself) that the unpaid US taxes levied against the CoS prior to the big IRS settlement put the CoS's book value far in the red. In other words, the church then owed more in taxes than all its sellable assets.

    If the rumors about the SO reserves, funded by IAS donations, are true, that's somewhere between $1 and $2 billion. If not, it's less than that.

    Add to that the CoS's owned real estate. If that were all sold on the open market right now (regardless of how much the CoS and parishioners actually paid for it, which was too much) that might be worth between $500K and $1 billion. Big range, but that's the best I can do.

    Subtract from that the value on CoS's books of tech services paid for but not delivered yet. I've heard this deficit is considerable. Purely arm-waving, I'd guess it's around $250 million.

    I doubt there are any outstanding debts to speak of. Certainly there are no employment contracts to pay off. Some legal fees, some architectural / planning fees perhaps. Maybe $50 million max?

    Based on the above armwaves, that makes CoS worth today between (rounded off) somewhere between $1.2 and $2.7 billion.

    Again, am only arm-waving.

    TG1
     
  2. Queenmab321

    Queenmab321 Patron Meritorious

    From what I've read Scientology has always been pretty hideous. This being said, Hubbard clearly managed to produce a set of dogma that many people find beneficial and meaningful. I suppose I would make a distinction between this core set of beliefs and the essentially fascist organization that surrounds it. It's hard to anticipate what this organization might do in the face of genuine extinction, but it seems more likely that it would adapt (with or without DM) in order to survive, rather than simply disappear. But even if the organization were to collapse, it's probable the core that attracted people in the first place would continue to do so. After all, people appear willing to believe almost anything, no matter how fabulous or nonsensical, as long as it provides them with certainty, identity and purpose.
    It's a fundamentalist sect and, therefore, resistant to reform, but a passing glance at the history of other movements shows, I think, a surprising capacity for adaptation.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2014
  3. Enthetan

    Enthetan Master of Disaster

    At this point, any new Scn who announces on Facebook that he's starting a course at the org, will likely have at least one Facebook friend who will give him LOTS of data about it.
     
  4. Enthetan

    Enthetan Master of Disaster

    Why do you assume he only has one?

    I recall the last time he got around to cleaning out his gun closet...

    [​IMG]
     
  5. Enthetan

    Enthetan Master of Disaster

    Real tough guys are very polite and considerate.

    They have to be. They hang out with armed people who are just as tough.
     
  6. o yes...

    politeness is very, very important...

    keep that in mind if you visit some of the venues i've passed through...
     
  7. Enthetan

    Enthetan Master of Disaster

    Even when the official organization is defunct, there will still be people who will putter with the tech. The Independent field will keep going for a while. Perhaps somebody will even collate what works as far as improving people's happiness, and things will resurge for a while.

    The tipping point, though, will be when cash flow is no longer sufficient to pay for the army of lawyers and PIs that DM uses to keep a lid on things.
     
  8. Enthetan

    Enthetan Master of Disaster

    I think I grew up in one of the venues you passed through.
     
  9. Cat's Squirrel

    Cat's Squirrel Gold Meritorious Patron

    Good point. If they ever lost their tax exempt status, that would be another one.
     
  10. kate8024

    kate8024 -deleted-

    My predictions for the CofS are somewhat less dramatic. I predict that over the course of, say, 30 years the Church of Scientology will slowly change the really bad stuff like RPF due to lawsuits but will more or sell stay about the same size membership wise. I predict that most of the Ideal Orgs will close and small Missions will pop up to replace them. Other than that I pretty much predict stagnation.
     
  11. i hesitate to make any predictions but i hope the fuck some people somewhere do something centered on auditing and training. i beginning to suspect that will never be CoS
     
  12. SpecialFrog

    SpecialFrog Silver Meritorious Patron

    The CoS Exist Survey suggests that the Independent field isn't really viable either. A decent number of people continue some involvement with the tech after leaving the CoS but this plummets rapidly and very few are still involved five years after leaving.

    [​IMG]

    And of course their recruiting pool is essentially the group of people leaving the CoS as they have almost no outreach to raw public, so as CoS shrinks further their recruiting pool shrinks as well.
     
  13. Veda

    Veda Sponsor

    So its worth is between 1.2 and 2.7 billion, although I have heard estimates as high a six billion. From the 1960s, with the Sea Org, with Xenu, with the RPF, with federal imprisonment of Hubbard's wife, to the bizarre 1986 'Death Event', to the "erasing" of Pat Broeker, to the surprise (for Miscavige in in the late 1980s) that there are no more upper OT levels, to the 1993 IRS agreement (a major turning point), and on and on, Scientology has increased significantly its worth over the decades.

    It doesn't seem likely that it will disappear any time in the foreseeable future.

    And it really has no need to reform. Why should it? It has a core membership, "religious" protection, its billion+ dollars, and the possibility that Miscavige - whose hands have been blooded to too great an extent - may be replaced by a charming, smart manipulator, who will assemble a tech team, and give Scientologists the new upper OT levels they so desire.

    It's not over yet.
     
  14. Auditor's Toad

    Auditor's Toad Clear as Mud

    That was my experience. There existence depended on being "tough" and while they are polite they have a couple of goombas over in the corner just waiting for the word to "take care of" somebody.

    My friend had "juice" in Vegas. Maybe one day I tell about the "favor" he did to get front row FREE tickets to a sold out show - and the major houshold name headliner singer came out and introduced the couple who had complained to their "uncle" they couldn't get tickets to the show.
     
  15. Anonycat

    Anonycat Crusader

    You have to admit though, over the past 6 years, it has taken a substantial beating, and if steam picks up, it really can't hold out. It can have a billion dollars, but it requires people to exist. My guess is their are now under 10,000 slaves.
     
  16. hmmmm..

    hubbard started CoS and his crony parsons started the jet propulsion laboratory

    what if CoS merges with JPL?
     
  17. Veda

    Veda Sponsor

    I've heard this sort of thing for thirty+ years. Before the internet, there were plenty of critical books (from the early 1970s). New people, many of whom had read one or more of them, joined anyway.

    New people, believe it or not, are still coming in.

    Watch out for Miscavige being replaced. Perhaps a bungler will replace him; perhaps a slick charming manipulator.

    Wait and see.

    In the meantime, the internet and making information and communication freely available will protect many.
     
  18. Sindy

    Sindy Crusader

    If we had the exciting privilege of watching Scientology collapse in sped-up time-lapsed film over the years, the implosion would be impressive and pronounced.

    We're in the throes of it. It's happening NOW. What do they really have left? Really.

    Allowing for the higher, 40,000 member figure, that's .0000056% of the population. That's pretty insignificant. That's the population of Quincy, IL, one little teeny, weeny town of many in just the one state of IL.

    So this dinky population of people who won't read or watch anything they're not supposed to, are indoctrinated, hypnotized and effectively nuts, mostly have all their credit cards maxed and their finances in shambles. They're amped up on some artificial, group-reinforced, long-running manic episode that demands "success", "expansion", "growth", "winning". This they have to fake because those attributes are not real in this environment. Those are not the characteristics of the lives they lead so they have to make affirmations to each other at events and on Facebook while deep down somewhere they sense they are living very inauthentic lives that have gone seriously awry.

    Most are trapped playing the Ideal Org game. Where once there was a purpose there is now only empty robotic activity towards an obligation and a goal they know they will never reach when they secretly allow themselves to "do the math" in their own time away from all the group agreement.

    Many of these buildings are in serious trouble. There are pending lawsuits with city officials having their patience tested over and over and over. This cannot go on forever and it won't. The reckoning is edging closer daily on this one.

    Miscavige, having created a fantasy world for so long, will play that out to the very end. He appears sick, frail, worried. Though he looks like your average guy, he's really a terrified wreck of a being who sees enemies and weird environments all around him. He is insane.

    Miscavige has no more cards to play. He's blown his wad. It's taken its toll on him too. After all these amazing global projects he's been working on for all these years, he was sure everyone would see him as the smartest guy alive -- the savior, the one. Instead he is reviled and has to pretend that doesn't bother him while it eats at him as a seething vindictive mass of hate.

    The jig is up. Though they rake in lots of dough, the enterprise is top heavy and cannot sustain itself. Miscavige will pretend he has enough money until he can't even pay a parking ticket. He knows no other way to act.

    Right now, in this snapshot of time, we are seeing the last of the semblance of order and pretty trimmings. Over the next year to two years, I predict the whole thing comes unglued to the point where even the members cannot pretend anymore. Miscavige is up against a wall. He thought his heavy hitters would support him and instead they left and started exposing him from the insane criminal that he is.

    I think that we have also seen that once the spell is broken, it may linger for a few years for some but eventually it wears off for most. I really don't see a big reorganization after the bloom is off the rose.

    If the "stats' over the last many years are to hold up (and there are no reasons to believe they will do otherwise), the thing will break up into something that no longer functions as a whole and it will be a crisis situation for them. I believe, in that crisis (because of the current world environment and collapse of so many systems), they will try desperately to hold onto the facade but they will fail.

    If I am wrong, I will eat serious crow shit, but I predict they are essentially done in 2 years or less.
     
    Last edited: Jan 30, 2014
  19. Sindy

    Sindy Crusader

    This is definitely the safer bet, I admit. I don't think so but I am very willing to be wrong. I, of course have no proof, but I also believe their holdings are substantially less than these numbers that get thrown around.

    Also, we can look at Steven Mango and say, "My god, they are still able to get people in and get them THAT under control. Amazing!" but they used to be able to keep a person like Steven for 25-30 plus years. They were able to keep him for 5. That's a big reduction. Their return on investment is upside down.

    Btw, hello. :)
     
  20. Gib

    Gib Crusader


    :thumbsup:

    The only thing you can be upbraided for is no results. There are no "clears" or "ot's" as is depicted in Martys recent blog,

    22 lawyers to defend DM vs a few lawyers to defend Monique.

    where are the "clears" and "ot's" to make this go away. :roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao::roflmao:

    only a bunch of high paid lawyers can make it go away. :hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical::hysterical: