Estimates for new members and total membership

[Gizmo]

A recent US TV program has an interview with a student who says she
was shown an issue where Hubbard claimed to be the messiah. I believe it was
Oprah's TV channel, however I can't find anything by searching.

Terril, c'mon, all good scngists have great certainty that their immortal Doctor Hubturd is so far above what wogs call God that they can not even be mentioned in the same comm cycle.

Whatever Doctor Hubturd claimed to be, he was. Whatever he said was the gospel truth. To doubt these facts is evil.

Please give the great Doctor Hubturd the altitude he deserves.

Please note He was so respected that his closest staff revised His will on his deathbed to keep His freeloading immediate family away from His personal wealth ( book royalties, ya know ).

 

[ThetanExterior]

Interesting information on Tony Ortega's blog about membership.

Recent defector Peter Nyiri says that the total of all Scientologists on file at Flag is 70,000. That is everyone who has ever started a service there since it was founded in 1975.

https://tonyortega.org/2017/09/11/h...ientology-in-los-angeles-is-dying/#more-42358

 

[Francois Tremblay]

Terril, c'mon, all good scngists have great certainty that their immortal Doctor Hubturd is so far above what wogs call God that they can not even be mentioned in the same comm cycle.

And don't even think about comparing DM with MLK!

 

[TrevAnon]

(Posting this here to keep it all together. Back to lurking mode... )

Now I did a similar analysis. Once again, I harvested a complete list. This new one has completions up until February 2018. Someone has been a busy bee!

I checked against the 2017 completions list I mention in the above link.

8,707 new names have been added; 4,681 of them having a completion date between June 2015 and February 2018. This is an average of 142 new names per month.

I don't have a good explanation why this is up from 77 new names per month in the previous analysis.

Thoughts?

 

[Clay Pigeon]

This is very interesting, Trev.

The number of 77 new names per month is roughly what can be expected.
Based on the entries / exits plots I made from the big list about 2 years ago:

I calculate an entry rate (green line) for 2005-2010 of about 1% in respect to the overall maximum (blue line / plateau 1990-1995).
There are reasonable assumptions this maximum was about 100k members and with 1% you get 1k new members per.
This is about the same as 77 new per month.

This calculation shows the overall estimated numbers of Scientologists is roughly correct.
Also, the entry rate remains low and in the same order of magnitude for over a decade.
I would not be too worried about the 77 new per month. With such low absolute numbers, the error could be quite high.

Besides, the last plot over at wwp shows the large effect of negative PR for Co$, i.e. the sharp drop in entry rate by 50% from 1989 to 1990. I consider this as an effect of the LA Times article series and I'm very confident the current efforts of LR and MR have an effect of at least the same factor.

Nevertheless, this cult is not finished yet. But neither are we.

Hmmmm...

According to this graph...

Scientology went into steep decline the year jerry garcia died.

Makes sense to me

 

[exbritscino]

So are we down to 2 yet?

I mean 2. Not two thousand!!

 

[dchoiceisalwaysrs]

Would it be possible to tally the completions by activity such as a basics book or a redo of the CCH's/survival rundown? I say this because apparently the bridge is circular now with the carrot on a central rotating arm saying this way >>>>to the top of the bridge.
This always makes me think of the Beatles song "Helter Skelter" or a circus fairy-wheel.